We are now officially into October, which means postseason baseball is underway. After an eventful Wild Card round, eight teams look to continue their quest for a championship. Here is a look at each Division Series Matchup, and who I think has the advantage in each.
Note: This article was written on Oct. 2, before the start of the Division Series.
Cleveland Guardians (2) vs Chicago White Sox (6)
The Chicago White Sox have been arguably baseball’s best story this year. Just one season after finishing 60-102, the worst record in the American League, they improved to 84-78, enough to snag the last Wild Card spot. A team with some impressive young talent, led by rookie Munetaka Murakami, didn’t have many problems against the Houston Astros during the Wild Card round. They swept the series in two games behind a strong showing from the offense. The White Sox are now set to face their division rivals for a 5 game series. The Cleveland Guardians went 16-9 in the final month of the season to steal the division from the White Sox, who were at the top for most of the season.
How the White Sox can Win
The key to Chicago’s success has been on the offensive side. The White Sox have been one of the best power hitting teams this year, finishing with 211 homers, good for fifth in the MLB. Chicago has multiple guys capable of providing that power spark at any moment, including Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, and Miguel Vargas, all who hit over 30 homers during the regular season. If each of these guys can turn on their bats and avoid striking out, Cleveland could be in trouble.
How the Guardians can Win
The Guardians are going to have a well rested pitching staff to try and counter Chicago’s offense. Rookie Parker Messick, who emerged as one of baseball’s most impressive rookies this season, will be taking the mound for Game 1. His 2.56 ERA in 32 starts has put him in the conversation for the American League rookie of the year and has earned him the opportunity to start the Guardians’ playoff opener. Messick has had success against Chicago this season, posting a 2.81 ERA with 29 strikeouts across 4 appearances. Cleveland will go with AL strikeout leader Gavin Williams in Game 2. Williams had a near 4.00 ERA in the regular season, but his ability to get swings and misses makes him a dangerous opponent. He recorded at least 10 strikeouts in 11 games, the most in the majors. Williams was somewhat inconsistent during the regular season, but if he can have one of his 10 strikeout games, the Guardians have a major advantage.
My Prediction
These two teams were as close as evenly matched during the regular season. Within 13 matchups, Chicago won the series 7-6, outscoring Cleveland by just one run. The question in this series is whether Chicago’s power-heavy lineup can overcome Cleveland’s strikeout-heavy pitching staff. Even though Chicago was top five in home runs, they were also top five in strikeouts, which includes Colson Montgomery’s 227 strikeouts, the most in a season in MLB history. I believe that these struggles in combination with Cleveland’s top-tier pitching staff will ultimately be the White Sox’s downfall. Chicago has defied all odds to get to this point, but I don’t think they will be able to continue this Cinderella story.
Result: Guardians win in 4
Tampa Bay Rays (1) vs New York Yankees (4)
The New York Yankees dominated their AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox, in the Wild Card Round to eliminate them for the second consecutive postseason. Everything was clicking on all cylinders for the Yankees, as they outscored Boston 18-2 overall in a two game sweep. They now move on to face another AL East rival in the number one seed Tampa Bay Rays, a team led by 23 year old superstar Junior Caminero. Tampa Bay will be looking to make it past the ALDS for the first time since 2020, when they beat none other than the Yankees three games to two.
How the Rays can Win
Tampa Bay has always been an interesting team. Always near the bottom in payroll, but always able to find a way to put together competitive teams year in and year out. They have made the playoffs six times since 2019, with scrappy lineups that wear pitchers out. This year is no different. The Rays led the AL in batting average (.258) and on base percentage (.326). The aforementioned phenom Junior Caminero was tied for second in the AL with 42 homers. The speedy Chandler Simpson led the AL with 46 steals. Their leadoff man Yandy Diaz led the AL with 180 hits. The point is that there are many different ways this team can beat you at the plate, and they are going to need each of these weapons against the elite New York pitching staff.
How the Yankees can Win
Like I said, the Yankees have an elite pitching staff, who had a 3.23 ERA, the lowest in the majors during the regular season. Gerrit Cole is set to toe the rubber for Game 1, where he looks to continue his impressive track record pitching when the lights are brightest. Over his career, he has a 2.77 ERA in 22 postseason appearances. The inevitable 2026 AL Cy Young, Cam Schlittler will go for Game 2 after blanking Boston in Game 1 of the Wild Card. Max Fried will most likely go Game 3, also coming off a convincing start against Boston. This team struggled during last year’s ALDS, largely because they had to go into their bullpen early and often. If the starters can pitch like they have all season, they shouldn’t have the same issue.
My Prediction
It’s hard to bet against New York’s pitching staff after such a dominant showing against Boston. I think Tampa Bay will give them a harder time, and I expect a big series from Junior Caminero, but don’t think it will be enough to overcome that many different elite arms that the Yanks can deploy.
Result: Yankees win in 4
Milwaukee Brewers (1) vs San Diego Padres (4)
The San Diego Padres were the hottest team in baseball the last month of the regular season, and showed no sign of cooling down anytime during the Wild Card Round against the Chicago Cubs. San Diego outplayed Chicago in every aspect of the game, outscoring the Cubs 12-1 during the two game sweep. They will try to keep the train moving against the team that had the best record in the MLB during the regular season and the favorite for NL Cy Young, Jacob “The Miz” Misiorowski.
How the Brewers can Win
The Brewers won 103 games this year, good for the most in baseball. Much of this success can be attributed to the pitching. Game 1 starter, Misiorowski was the most dominant pitcher in baseball. He led the league in strikeouts (252) and ERA (1.80) in only his second year in the bigs. Because of this dominance, a lot of people forget about the Game 2 starter, Logan Henderson. In his first full season he put up a 2.47 ERA in 18 starts. It’s not much easier facing the bullpen either. They had a 3.40 ERA during the regular season, the lowest in the NL. It feels like Milwaukee is already starting with a 1-0 series lead with Misiorowski pitching, and there is not going to be much relief for San Diego after that.
How the Padres can Win
Their stars, Fernando Tatis Jr and Manny Machado both hit home runs during the Wild Card Series, which is a good sign if the Padres want to have a chance in this series. They also have the best closer in the MLB in Mason Miller. He had a ridiculous 129 strikeouts in only 70 innings pitched. If these three guys are on, and the Padres play the same brand of baseball that they have been for over a month now, an upset could be on the horizon. San Diego also has plenty of depth beyond its biggest stars. Center fielder Jackson Merrill had a hot month of September to go along with his strong defense in the outfield. Ty France has also provided another reliable bat in the lineup, hitting .295 with 21 home runs during the regular season. This depth gives San Diego multiple ways to generate offense against a Milwaukee pitching staff that has been dominant all season.
My Prediction
This is arguably the most entertaining of the Division Series matchups. The hottest team in baseball going up against the highest win team in baseball. Two of the fastest throwing pitchers in MLB history are going up against each other. I do think the Padres will drop the first game with Misiorowski on the mound, but it is hard to ignore Milwaukee’s previous postseason struggles. Last year they got swept in the NLCS despite having the best record in baseball. The year before they got eliminated in the Wild Card round. Even if the Padres drop the first game, they have enough talent and momentum to quickly move past the loss. Milwaukee’s recent postseason struggles, combined with how well San Diego has played over the past month, make me confident the Padres can respond and ultimately pull off the upset. No matter who wins the series, expect some postseason pitch speed records to be broken by Misiorowski and Miller.
Result: Padres win in 5
Los Angeles Dodgers (2) vs Atlanta Braves (3)
The Atlanta Braves were able to bounce back from a demoralizing Game 2 loss against the Philadelphia Phillies in the Wild Card to win it in three games. They weren’t able to do this without taxing their pitching, particularly their ace Chris Sale, who was deployed to close out Game 3 even after starting Game 1. They will face off against the most feared team in baseball, the back to back World Series champs Los Angeles Dodgers.
How the Dodgers can Win
There is a reason the Dodgers enter October as the team everyone wants to beat. Even after winning back to back titles, the Dodgers were still not satisfied. They signed Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz and traded for Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. Their offseason acquisitions in Tucker and Diaz have hardly gone the way that they had hoped. Kyle Tucker had a career worst season, hitting only 17 home runs and batting only .233. Diaz was injured for most of the season, and when he did pitch, it wasn’t pretty. It may sound like I’m listing reasons for why the Dodgers aren’t going to win, but there is good news. Tucker, Diaz, and many other Dodgers have played much better during the final stretch of the season. During the month of September, Tucker batted .262 with six home runs and 13 RBIs. Edwin Diaz did not allow a run and struck out nine in five appearances. Mookie Betts, who was not himself for much of the season, batted .337 with seven homers and 22 RBIs. Overall, the Dodgers finished 18-7 in September, the best record only behind the Padres and Brewers. Not to mention they have the best pitching staff in baseball. If all of their stars can play like they know how, it should be a relatively easy series.
How the Braves can Win
If Atlanta wants to have a shot, everyone on their pitching staff needs to be ready to step up. The Braves burned through a lot of their pitchers during the Wild Card Round. Sale will likely not be able to pitch for the first couple games of the series. Tyler Mahle, their number two guy will also not pitch until Game 2 at the earliest. This means that some other pitchers, particularly in their bullpen will have to carry the load. We saw this work out in Game 3 of the Wild Card, when Ray Kerr pitched a scoreless 3.1 innings to begin the game. If the rest of Atlanta’s pitchers can follow in his footsteps, it will make for a much more interesting series.
My Prediction
Atlanta has a great team, or else they wouldn’t be here. Matt Olson, who was third in the majors in homers, can hit one out at any time. Former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. has not been like himself for a while now, but he is still dangerous. Even if it’s not right away, two of the best pitchers in the league in Sale and Mahle will be used at some point. Despite this, it’s impossible not to bet on the back to back champs and arguably one of the best teams ever assembled on paper. I think that the Dodgers bats have come alive at just the right time and will deplete Atlanta’s pitching. The rotation will pitch as usual, allowing for the Dodgers to move on to the NLCS.
Result: Dodgers win in 4
The Division Series features four very different matchups, with each team having a legitimate path to the Championship Series. In the American League, I expect pitching to be the deciding factor, with Cleveland and New York advancing. The National League could be less predictable, especially with San Diego entering as one of baseball’s hottest teams. I expect that the Padres and Dodgers will meet in the NLCS. If the Wild Card round was any indication, there should be plenty more excitement before the final four teams are decided.
