Every award season, discourse about the predictability of award shows returns with a new vengeance. The Oscars are an institution in the entertainment industry and with nine decades of history, a pattern has emerged in terms of what type of film and what type of performance tends to win the most awards. Does this pattern mean that the Oscars are predictable? Or do the best films just so happen to follow the pattern?
The conversation surrounding Oscar nominees online often circles back to the term “Oscar bait.” Films described this way are often serious, drama films. Typically, they are historical or biopics. “Oscar bait” films can be seen as boring by fans of popular cinema as they are typically realist films, with a slower pace and focus on performance over plot and spectacle. The Academy Awards are often criticized for only awarding films that fall into this category.
“Over the years, with the expanded best picture category, I think there’s been this attempt to make the Oscars more inclusive and diverse,” says Dr. Mikki Kressbach, associate professor of Film, Television and Media Studies at Loyola Marymount University. It may seem this makes predicting the winner to be significantly easier as there are fewer “oscar bait” films nominated. However, as last year’s awards proved, the status quo no longer matters.
At the 81st annual Oscars, “Oscar bait” films such as The Brutalist, Conclave, and A Complete Unknown, lost to Anora. Anora is a comedy melodrama directed by first time nominee Sean Baker, starring first time nominee and winner Mikey Madison. However, in 2024, the most quintessential “Oscar bait” film, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, took the award. Cillian Murphy took best actor and Robert Downey Jr. took best supporting actor.
The Academy may nominate films from diverse genres, Kressbach specifically cites horror and comedy, but, they rarely win.
“By and large the winners of these categories have been pretty consistent with the last few decades where it tends to be very biopic heavy, very drama heavy,” she explains.
This year, we may see a deviation from the norm as two of the heaviest hitters are not traditional drama films. One Battle After Another is a comedy film with dramatic moments and Sinners combines drama with supernatural horror and action.
The best director category is often a predictor of the best picture winner. Over the past ten years, six of the best director winners also won best picture. Since the start of the decade, 2022 is the only year that deviated from this pattern. Jane Champion took best director for The Power of the Dog, while CODA took best picture.
According to Kressbach, “bigness” is what defines Oscar winning performances. They are performances that let the actor show off their skills and portray a wide range of emotions. The film does not have to be big, but the emotion does. In the best actor category, biopic films are the best indicator of a winning performance. Over the past ten years, seven of the best actor winners won for their performance in a biopic.
“In the actress category, it is perhaps a little more diverse,” says Kressbach. Diversity in terms of both performance style and film genre. Stand outs include Michelle Yeoh in the action comedy Everything, Everywhere All at Once and Emma Stone in musical melodrama La La Land. Three best actress winners from the past ten years won for their performance in a biopic, making biopics less of a predictor for winning actresses than actors.
“You don’t need to watch all the films to predict the winners,” Kressbach says. Trends and patterns are the best way to go if you want to accurately predict the Oscar winners. Film is subjective. What I think is best, is not what you think is best, is not what the Academy thinks is best. According to Kressbach, in order to accurately predict winners it’s best to put your personal feelings aside as, “the films that win Oscars are not always the best.”
Here are my predictions for the most popular categories:
Best Picture: One Battle After Another
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Best Actress: Jessie Buckely (Hamnet)
Best Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
